::: welcome to forexmarket2010.blogspot.com :::.

Monday, July 5, 2010

The financial markets are in full mode of adversity to risk




The financial markets are in full mode of adversity to risk, with the European and commodity currencies down and the yen up, and with the Asia/Pacific stock markets down and the gold/oil spread up. Of course, the DJI is in a head-and-shoulders, failing during the second half of last week to bounce on profit taking. The US non-arm payrolls came as bad as expected during the last month of fake growth from the temporary Census jobs.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish for the European and commodity currencies and slightly bearish for the yen. The medium-term outlook is sideways for most of the foreign currencies futures. My model is short the commodity currencies and long the European currencies and the yen.
This analysis is based on my books, as follows:
“Trading in the Global Currency Markets” - Prentice Hall Press, 3rd edition 2007
“Technical Analysis Applications” - McGraw-Hill, 2004

Overnight:   
  • US: Non-farm payrolls employment fell by 125,000 jobs in June following an upwardly revised increase of 433,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5% in June from 9.7% in May, as people gave up looking for work and left the labor force.
  • US: Factory orders fell by 1.4% in May following a downwardly revised 1.0% increase in April.
  • Australia: AiG Performance of Service Index rose to 48.8 in June from 47.5 in May.
  • Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia will conclude its monetary policy meeting and hold at the current level of 4.50%. 
  • Japan: The Nomura services PMI fell to 47.1 in June from 47.5 in May.   
  • China: The capital account balance was revised to show a surplus of US$64.2 billion in the first quarter from US$55 billion.            
  • Eurozone: PMI composite fell to a three-month low of 56 in June from 56.4 in May. The services PMI fell to a three-month low of 55.5 in June from 56.2 in May.
  • Eurozone: Retail sales rose 0.2% in May following the revised April's decline of 0.9% from -1.2% initially reported. 
  • Switzerland: Retail sales grew 1.3% in May following a 1.5% rise in April.
  • UK: The CIPS services PMI fell to a seasonally adjusted 54.4 in June from 55.4 in May.
  • US: No data        
  • Canada: No data       

No comments:

Post a Comment